Miguel Angel Benedicto. Professor of International Relations, European University.
Uncertainty and instability are the two words most often heard and read today in Spain after the elections held yesterday. The crash of the Spanish stock market and the rise of the spread confirms this situation. We’ll see how the European Union reacts.
20 December results have left a fragmented parliament with 4 large main forces that weaken or attenuate the traditional bipartisanship of the PP and PSOE. The two emerging parties, Ciudadanos with 61 seats and Podemos with 40, lead to a situation of imperfect bipartisanship that it will make difficult to form a government.
It would be necessary dialogue and high-mindedness to reach agreements that allow the choice of President. It will require the agreement of more than threenpolitical parties to reach the 176 seats in the absolute majority. The italianización of Spanish politics has come, or we may see a scene like in Portugal with leftist parties and who knows whether a grand coalition like in Germany will be possible.
Mariano Rajoy has been the most voted candidate and has 123 seats that move away from the 176 majority. The PP has complicated to get a majority to govern because Ciudadanos has only gained 40 deputies and need more allies. Albert Rivera said in campaign never pacts with Rajoy and a coalition with the nationalist parties is one of the red lines that have the leader of Ciudadanos.
The Socialist Party with 90 seats may allow the PP tried to form a government and if it unsuccessful; Pedro Sánchez, the leader of PSOE, could seek an alliance of leftist parties and nationalists who ventures too complex and could blow the game, especially if they have to say yes to referendum that Podemos asks for Catalonia.
The most viable option in countries like Germany would be a grand coalition between the PP and the PSOE, something that Pedro Sanchez has refused from the beginning and probably their constituents do not share.
We are facing a difficult puzzle pieces fit in a fragmented parliament that need dialogue and polítical height if we want Spain to leave the uncertainty and lest we heading for new elections.